Impacto socioeconómico por lahares y caída de ceniza ante la erupción del volcán Cayambe en la actividad florícola en Cayambe y Pedro Moncayo

Abstract

The complex volcano of Cayambe in Ecuador represents a potential threat, especially for populations that base their economy in floriculture. In this work, we present: 1) spatially modeling the eruption scenarios of the volcano, 2) spatially modeling the potential impact of these risk scenarios by lahar and ash affectation; and 3) evaluate the socioeconomic impacts of eruption scenarios modeled by ash fall through a statistical analysis of numerical simulations of eruptive scenarios and areas affected by lahars taken from the new hazard map of Cayambe. Thus, it was determined that an ash depth of 20 to 50 mm would be the main issue, covering 81.46% of the surface with losses amounting to USD 320 million in plants and greenhouses. In the case of lahars, the losses would occur on the grounds. In the case of primary lahars, there might be an estimated loss of USD 45 million and in secondary lahars; the loss might be about USD 15 million. Results obtained in the simulations have a better level of detail than those obtained in previous years by the available cartographic information of the sector and the computational tools utilized. This ties in with Cayambe's deposits and can be managed for the decision-making in the interest of the affected populations, considering that an eruption of the Cayambe volcano requires careful attention for its high local and national socioeconomic impact because flower exportations are an important economic sector for the country.