Análisis estadístico de simulaciones numéricas de dispersión y caída de ceniza del volcán Cayambe para la determinación de afectación en el sector florícola, Cantón Cayambe, Ecuador

Abstract

The Cayambe volcanic complex represents a hazard to the 85 795 inhabitants who base their economy on floriculture. So far, no estimates have been made of the economic impact that an eventual eruption of the Cayambe in the area would cause. The delineation of areas affected by ash fall were obtained through a statistical analysis of numerical simulations of eruptive scenarios. 39,006 buildings were digitalized from aerial photography in order to identify and quantify the infrastructure that could potentially be affected by the occurrence of this phenomena. The analysis and processing of the census data allowed characterizing the study area and describing the impact that an event of this type would have on the local population. Thus, ash thicknesses of 15 mm to 45 mm covering 97.83% of the surface with estimated losses up to USD 140 million in plants and greenhouses. The surface of the canton would be affected by ash fall. This would affect more than 100 villages, 21,844 homes and 7,611 jobs in the floriculture. In the medium and long term, the economies of at least 3,500 families would be affected by unemployment because of the economic losses that the floriculture industry would suffer.