Regionalización Estadística de Escenarios Climáticos con CMIP5 para el Perú

Abstract

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are currently playing an important role as a tool to identify important changes in the climate system during the following decades; These allow the simulation of flows of energy, mass and momentum in each spatially distributed three-dimensional grid. Nevertheless; the spatial resolution of these dynamic models are too thick (> 250km) and considered as the main disadvantage when conducting localized studies. In this sense, this research prioritizes the application of statistical regionalization techniques, placing emphasis on specific areas. One of the main results is focused on
obtaining the regionalized maps of the climate projections of precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature for Peru and in a context of the Climate scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report-AR5-2014 of the IPCC - RCP45 & RCP85. The regionalized maps were calculated for a group of 4 models
(global climate models of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project -CMIP5) mainly and that were selected by applying statistical metrics. The projections under each of the two scenarios are focused on the future period 2041-2070, taking 1981-2005 as the referential climate period. Each of the 4
selected models were analyzed allowing to observe the spatial distribution of the variables focused on areas of interest. The annual results show that in general there is a possible increase in the minimum air temperature, with ranges that vary between 1.5 °C to 1.8 °C under RCP4.5 and 2.6 °C to 3.7 °C under RCP8.5. , for the maximum air temperature of 1.6 °C to 1.8 °C under RCP4.5 and 2.7 °C to 3.9 °C under RCP8.5. These increases in general would be more focused on the northern, central and southern lowland forest. For
precipitation under the two scenarios RCP varies according to the area of analysis, showing significant increases for the north coast and central coast of Peru between 20% and 10% respectively and would be associated with the dynamics of the ocean, mainly the central and eastern Pacific. For the south
coast the projections show deficiencies between -10% to -20%; However, for the central and southern Andean areas, the projections are for an increase to 20% and would be associated with the teleconnection that exists between the Central Pacific and the Andean area of Peru. On the other hand, the projections
are for a reduction for the lowland forest between -12% to -20%.