Vulnerabilidad ecológica del complejo de páramos Chilí-Barragán, Colombia, a los incrementos de temperatura en un escenario de cambio climático

Abstract

This research aims to assess the ecological vulnerability of the complex páramos Chilí-Barragán to increases in temperature in the climate change scenario RCP 6.0 for the period 1981-2095. To which must be estimated temperature increases in the period 1981-2010 and 2011-2095, determine the potential impact and potential recovery in the complex of páramos Chilí-Barragán.

The ecological vulnerability assessment was carried out with different indexes and indicators, including the ecological vulnerability index. The methods used are the analytic hierarchy process and expert opinion.

In the complex was found an increase in the average temperature of 0,79 °C (1981-2010) and 2,12 °C (2011-2095). It has mostly average recovery potential and a high potential impact. The ecological vulnerability is mostly high extent, and represents 47,51% of the area of the complex.